Forecasting Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Climatic Factors in Padang, Indonesia: A Time Series Analysis

Djafri, Defriman (2011) Forecasting Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Climatic Factors in Padang, Indonesia: A Time Series Analysis. In: Asia-Pacific Academic Consortium for Public Health, South Korea.

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to expand the forecasts model for DHF Incidence on climatic factors with seasonal/cyclical trends in Padang, Indonesia. Data regarding monthly DHF reported cases by months, monthly total rainfall, rain days, wind speed, monthly average temperature and average relative humidity from January 2001-Desember 2008 (96 months) in Padang City were collected from various relevant governmental departments. A time series analysis model with the equation DHF incidence = constant + trend + cyclic/seasonal effect + climatic factors was applied to demonstrate the effect of climatic factor on DHF incidence. Out of 96 months examined, an increase in DHF incidence was showed outbreaks were four times. Minimum temperatures show that a similar pattern after one year, mostly in the end of the year. Result of the model showed that an increase in DHF incidence was predicted with climatic factors and seasonal effect, but the escalation of cases trend was increased in early year. Climate factors are directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission. Periodically, assessing exposure to climatic factors is complex and assessing climate change vulnerability is important in the future.

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