Diwandani, Gebry Ayu and FEBRIAMANSYAH, RUDI and Nofialdi, Nofialdi
(2015)
DYNAMIC MODELLING FOR MANAGEMENT POLICY ANALYSIS OF RICE AVAILABILITY (A Case Of Solok Regency).
Masters thesis, fakultas pertanian.
Abstract
This paper present dynamic modelling for management policy analysis of rice availability in Solok Regency, West Sumatera. As the largest rice producer in West Sumatera, Solok Regency faced some threats for their rice availability in the future. There are some dynamics factors influenced rice availability in Solok Regency, that is conversion of wetland to non agricultural use because of urbanization process, inefficient of rice production, and increasing the number of population and rice consumption. This research aimed to (1) construct and validate dynamic modelling of rice availability in Solok Regency, (2) analyze the simulation result of dynamic model to estimate rice supply and demand in the future, and (3) analyze the simulation result to several alternative policy for securing rice availability in the future. The simulation period is 2005 – 2050. The result of this research showed that dynamic modelling of rice availability in Solok Regency consist of three submodel that is rice supply submodel, rice demand submodel, and balancing of rice supply demand submodel. This research also use MAPE as model validation method, and the result showed that dynamic modelling of rice availability in Solok Regency was valid. The simulation result showed that in 2033, rice availability in Solok Regency will deficit 418,67 tonnes, because of capability of rice supply keep on declining while rice demand keep on rising. The result of testing five alternative policies showed that the fifth alternative give a continue rice surplus until 2050 which in that year rice surplus will estimated 5.936,58 tonnes. The fifth alternative was a combination policies of adding new wetland, irrigation rehabilitation and development, land optimalization, and harvest and postharvest handling improvement.
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