Fitriana, Laily and FEBRIAMANSYAH, RUDI and Refdinal, M. and Hasnah , Hasnah
(2016)
CLIMATE CHANGES AND RISK ANALYSIS OF RED ONION (Allium Ascolanicum) FARMING: A CASE FROM NAGARI SANING BAKA, SOLOK, WEST SUMATERA PROVINCE, INDONESIA.
In: 3rd International Conference on Actual Economic Problems, 6-7 October 2016, Bangkok, Thailand.
(Submitted)
Abstract
Red Onion (Allium Ascolanicum) is a non-substituted commodity for Indonesian consumer. It is a well-known situation in Indonesia, where the fluctuation supply of some agriculture products like rice and also red onion may causes the economic inflation in one region. It is even often happening in the long Moslem Holiday since Ramadhan fasting month up to Idul Fitri Holiday where the demand of food products significantly higher than its supplies. Nagari Saning Baka is a well-known village in Solok Regency as a center of red onion production in West Sumatera Province. However, since around 1980s, secondary data from local government showed significant decreased of production area of this crop. Local farmers mentioned factor of climate, especially the uncertainty of rainfall season in this region has caused the uncertainty to produce better harvest of this red onion. Since 2000, averagely, maximum yields of red onion from this area only around 8 Ton/Ha, much lower compare to average maximum yields in Solok Regency for about 10 Ton/Ha. This study have tried to identified factors that influence the production risk of red onion in this region by using regression analysis to test some hypothetical input factors, like numbers of seed, fertilizer, volume of pesticides, frequency of pesticides applied, labor, and variety of red onion itself. The production risk as dependent variable is identified by calculating the variance of production for each farmer. This study uses cross section data by collecting information from 70 farmers as sample. As a result, the risk analysis showed that red onion farmers are facing high risk in their farm, and higher risk in hot season compare to rainy season. The expected production of red onion is only 3.2 Ton/Ha per planting season. The result for regression analysis showed that only three input factors have showed high significance in influencing the production risk of red onion, are; the use of single fertilizer, leaf fertilizer and the uses of pesticides.
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