PROYEKSI PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN DAGING BABI DI KABUPATEN TAPANULI UTARA TAHUN 2000 - 2004

Jafrinur, Jafrinur and Rahman, Idrus and Arfai, Arfai (2010) PROYEKSI PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN DAGING BABI DI KABUPATEN TAPANULI UTARA TAHUN 2000 - 2004. Project Report. Lembaga Penelitian Universitas Andalas. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Research with secondary dataanalysis was conducted to forecasting demand and supply of pork in North Tapanuli Utara District for 2000 to 2004. There were two data sources :cross section of National Socioeconomic survey (susenas) for pork demand projection, and time series for pork supply projection.Research used two scenario where annual growth rate 7,12 % for first scenario and 0 % (Zero growth) for second scenario. Projection methodes used where consumption model for pork demand (Aziz, 1986) and growth linear model for pork supply (Soepranto, 1986). The result showed that projection of pork demand in Tapanuli Utara Distric will be increase from 1.111.976,680 kgs in 2000 to 1.502.857.206 kgs in 2004 average annually trend, 7,82 % or 682.073,16 kgs in 2000 to 695.342,40 kgs in 2004 with average annually fend 0,48 % (second scenario). Projection of supply { supply forecasting ) of pork will be increase ftom 2.409.098,27 kgs in 2000 to 5.045.648.88 kgs in 2004 with average annually trend 20,29 %.

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